Germans begin voting as polls indicate rightward shift

BERLIN,— German citizens are casting their votes in a national election on Sunday, with expectations pointing to a victory for Friedrich Merz’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union (CSU).

However, despite their lead in opinion polls, the CDU/CSU bloc is unlikely to secure an outright majority, which will likely force the party into difficult coalition negotiations.

The election comes at a time of heightened political tension, especially over migration policies and the presence of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which is predicted to achieve its best result yet.

The rise of the AfD presents a challenge for mainstream parties, particularly because of Germany’s historical sensitivities regarding far-right politics due to its Nazi past.

Political analysts expect that if no majority government emerges, Chancellor Olaf Scholz may remain in a caretaker role for months, delaying necessary reforms.

Scholz’s government, a coalition of his Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democrats (FDP), collapsed last November after disagreements over budgetary policies.

This has left Germany’s leadership in uncertainty at a time when its economy has faced two consecutive years of contraction, and businesses are grappling with increasing global competition.

According to a recent Gallup poll, German public sentiment about living standards has deteriorated significantly.

The proportion of people who feel their situation is improving has dropped sharply from 42% in 2023 to just 27% in 2024. Meanwhile, attitudes toward migration have also shifted, moving away from the welcoming stance Germany took during the 2015 refugee crisis.

Polls opened at 8 a.m. local time and are set to close at 6 p.m. (1700 GMT). About 60 million eligible voters across Germany will have their say, with exit polls and initial results expected shortly after.

The campaign has been dominated by debates over irregular migration, fueled by rising incidents involving migrants.

Recently, a Syrian refugee was arrested in connection with a stabbing at Berlin’s Holocaust memorial, where he allegedly planned to target Jews. Such incidents have added fuel to the AfD’s anti-migration rhetoric, contributing to its growing support.

The AfD, which has positioned itself as an alternative to the establishment parties, is on track to secure second place in this election for the first time.

Despite this, the party is unlikely to play a role in government at present, as all major parties have ruled out forming coalitions with the AfD. Some analysts suggest, however, that the AfD’s growing support could pave the way for it to become a governing force in the 2029 elections.

Many voters, like Ludmila Ballhorn, a 76-year-old retired bookkeeper from Berlin, are turning to the AfD as a protest against the economic challenges facing ordinary Germans.

“I’m completely disappointed in politics. Maybe an alternative would be better,” she said. Ballhorn, who plans to vote for the AfD, is struggling with the rising costs of living, including skyrocketing rents.

The coalition landscape remains complex, with analysts speculating that Merz’s CDU/CSU could form a new “grand coalition” with the SPD, which is currently polling in third place. Alternatively, a more fragmented three-way coalition may be necessary if several smaller parties clear the 5% threshold to enter parliament, further complicating negotiations.

Despite the challenges ahead, European Union allies hope that the election results will lead to a more stable and effective German government, which is crucial for driving both domestic policy and EU initiatives.

One area of particular interest is whether Merz will push for reforms to Germany’s “debt brake” constitutional rule, which critics argue has hindered investments needed for growth.

(With files from Reuters)