The KRG Should Not Kowtow to Baghdad!

Omar Sindi | Exclusive to iKurd.net

The opinions are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent the views of iKurd.net or its editors.

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) should not trust the Baghdad Regime because going back to history, any lesson that the various regimes coming on the negotiation table with the Kurdish leadership on the Kurdish rights on their weakness posture, and their rigid mindset still believe a military solution, not a dialogue of peace settlement on the Kurdish people rights; just like their predecessors reflected a century ago, they are not focused on settling the Kurdish rights metamorphic into a peaceful negotiation.

For example from the last century, in the 1960’s through 70’s anytime that a regime in Baghdad offered a peaceful solution to the Kurdish leadership under late Gen. Mustafa Barzani, when the regime was not in a position of strength but rather in position of weakness, the regime in Baghdad, either politically, militarily or economically was not in good posture to continue the war with Kurds.

In 1969, the Ba’ath party overthrew Iraqi president Abdul Rahman Arif and prime minister Tahir Yaya from power, and the new regime continued the war with the Kurdish Peshmerga forces, in which the Ba’ath army was defeated in many battles. Afterward, the Ba’ath regime offered a peace deal dialogue settlement for the Kurdish rights in Iraq, but as soon as the Ba’ath regime stabilized, it ignored many clauses of the agreement between both sides, until 1974, when the Ba’ath government forces went onto a full scale war with Kurds.

Finally, to the infamous “Algiers Agreement” between the pathetic dreadful Shah of Iran and the Ba’athist regime tyrant Saddam Hussein. One cannot negotiate on issues from the weak position; the question is how the KRG can encounter Baghdad in a position of strength. The position of strength can come through the Kurdish political unity and transparency, and people’s trust of the governing structure, etc.

It’s conspicuously obvious that the Iraqi Federal Court is politically motivated, mostly by those politicians or political party(s) who’s influenced by the theocratic regime in Iran, and why the Iraqi Federal Court does not force leadership in Baghdad to implement article 140, which is part of the Iraqi constitution to settle the disputed area with the KRG. Neither the Mullah’s regime nor the Turkish state desires that the Iraqi state as a cohesive structure to politically succeed, or as a multi-parties political structure among Iraqi people.

They like chaos and political turmoil in Iraq, so they can make sphere of influence in Iraq for political and economic advantages, just like the political turmoil in Lebanon through Hezbollah, and Syria’s catastrophic civil war, there is no hope of peace in horizon anytime soon in Syria, late Ali Abdullah Saleh‘s misguided policy of an autocratic rule, corruptions in Yemen created a devastating civil war – now given the circumstances, the dominant force in Yemen being the Houthi militias, who are attacking International Commercial shipping in the Red Sea, both Turkey and Iran are provoking/instigating Hamas into a war with Israel (Hamas should‘ve weighed the ‘pros and cons’ before attacking Israel) which has been devastating to the Palestinian people, and both regimes are politicizing the unfortunate issue of Gaza, for their political advantages; but the Turkish armed forces and armed drone bombing Kurdish villages, killing civilians in both Kurdish areas in Iraq and Syria and the Iranian regime’s border guards killing the Kurdish Kolbar (porters) mainly at Iran and Iraq gates crossing, people who are trying to make ends meet on daily basis, to feed their families.

Alas, Perhaps both rogue states think that Kurdish life is trivial or has no value. Neither Iran nor Turkey would like the KRG to succeed politically or to a larger extent want Iraqi unity, so as to manipulate Iraq to their political advantage; Iraqi Prime Minister Mohamd Shia Al-Sudani should be aware of the Turkish state and Iranian regime’s irredentism and revanchism of their ambitious policy in the Middle East, and beyond.

The Kurdish political party(s) and politicians should bear in mind that history does repeat itself, particularly in the neighboring countries on the Kurdish issue of collaboration against the Kurdish liberation movements- “ Iran, Turkey, and to a lesser extent Syria presented more serious problems because they shared common borders with Iraq and also contained large Kurdish minorities of their own.

Since a Kurdish revolt in any of these three states could well foment one in the others, the three usually tried to cooperate on the issue. Thus the Saadabad Pact in 1937 and the Baghdad Pact in 1955, in part, obligated the three to cooperate on the Kurdish issue…” -Conflict Quarterly by Michael M. Gunter. Again, the Saadabad Pact and Baghdad Pact agreements are still not abrogated.

Kurdish politicians need to manage themselves to put national goals above political self interests and contemporize its political policy, because time cannot wait. If they don’t act, time will leave them behind. KRG’s prime minister Masrour Barzani , despite what critics are saying with their hyperbolic statements, from a diplomatic standpoint the trip to the United States was reasonably a successful one, he met with Tony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, and he also met with many members of the US Congress, both Democrats and Republicans, and others, in my view this is also allusion to both Iran and Turkey that the US foreign policy, there will be no immediate change in the Middle East, and including the Kurdish issue, (but Mr. Barzani needs to ratchet up the internal issues among Iraqi Kurdish political parties) at least for this year; however, it’s election year in the United States.

If President Joe Biden is re-elected, again most likely there will be no major shifts in the US foreign policy. If the Republican nominee former president Donald J. Trump comes to power, it’s very hard to predict what kind of foreign policy he will pursue, perhaps an isolationist policy which will create many different instances of chaos in the globe, which it will sharpen the anti-democratic rhetoric of authoritarian regimes, including the Middle East, NATO’s unity most likely will be in his agenda’s, particularly in European policy, the Ukraine war with Russia. Trump’s relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin is a mystery.

In 2019, when he was in White House as the US president at some point he was threating Turkey to crush their economy, if the Turkish armed forces invade Northeast Syria in Kurdish area any further, than suddenly phone conversation with the Turkish President Erdogan, he reconciled with Erdogan on military operation into Kurdish area in Syria, and with drew the US forces from many strategic locations in Northeast Syria, Turkey advanced deeper onto Kurdish area, afterward, the US Congress intervened and prevented a complete US forces withdrawal from Syria.

U.S. President Donald Trump with former Vice President Joe Biden after being sworn in as the 45th president of the United States January 20, 2017. Photo: AFP

Many political observers have indicated that Former President Donald Trump is a populist President, and populism and an isolationist policy will have an adverse effect in the long term on the US’ foreign policy, along with their economic interests on the global stage, for example the United States’ disengagement policy with Pakistan, the Chinese government is economically warming up its relationship with Pakistan.

However, this election year between President Biden and the Republican party nominee Donald J. Trump, most likely will be unprecedented compared to the previously held presidential elections in the United States, it’s highly possible that it will not be a peaceful transition of power. One thing is clear: Donald Trump doesn’t care about democracy and human rights around the globe. If Trump becomes the US president, democracy will backslide under Donald Trump’s presidency.

Kurdish Oil issue: Initially, despite Baghdad complaining on the KRG oil deal at that time, The Kurdish oil exploration, developments, and its export were initiated by the Americans and many European Oil Companies. Later on, Russian and Chinese companies were awarded oil deals contracts within the KRG domain. In my view, had the oil contract stayed with the Americans and European companies, most likely they would have found a method of mechanism of preventing an Iraqi complaint to reach the International Arbitration Court in Paris, which ruled in Baghdad‘s favor against KRG independent crude oil export sale.

Many historians, academics, and political pundits who are sympathetic to the Kurdish cause of statehood have opined that the suitable period for Kurdish state was after World War I from the early end of 1918 to the end 1921; because Ottoman Authority was not beyond Istanbul’s perimeter and Persian army was in no better shape.

However, since the elimination the medieval Kurdish principalities, that the Kurdish society was fragmented further into tribalism functioning, who were unable to ratch up their differences as a national forces Lord Curzon (British-war cabinet minister at that time) in so many words said looking for the Kurdish leaders in Istanbul and Baghdad, anyone who I met, spoke about his self-interest and his tribe, not their national interest.

That golden opportunity slipped away from the Kurdish people’s hand, alas, as it stands, and it appears that the current internal division, and political upheaval within KRG domain in between Kurdish political parties, that this opportunity will meet the same fate as the opportunity in the 1920’s.

In general, the tribal system is a peril to the Kurdish national movements, many times throughout history, the tribes have cooperated with central governments whether with Ankara, Tehran, or Baghdad against the Kurdish national movements.

The internal division among the Kurdish political parties and politicians within the KRG domain, which is threatening the survival of Kurdish government, that’s what the Kurdish enemies’ skullduggery project, want this kind of political turmoil to transpire among the Kurdish leaders-narration tale, it’s just like a vermin who takes over the ruined city. No matter how much kowtowing happens to Baghdad; one must negotiate from the position of strength, not from the position of weakness. To trust Baghdad, it’s just like telling a pack of wolves to watch my herds!!!

Omar Sindi, a senior writer, analyst and columnist for iKurd.net, Washington, United States.

The opinions are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent the views of iKurd.net or its editors.