Pakistan Has Lost Control in Balochistan

Manish Rai | iKurd.net

Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest province in terms of area has been rocked by multiple massive attacks recently. These attacks by Baloch insurgents, especially the attack on the Jaffar Express by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) have raised a very valid question: Is the Pakistani Army really in control of Balochistan? This train hijacking left dozens dead and triggered a 30-hour military operation.

The Pakistani Army had to launch airstrikes and ground operations simultaneously to reclaim the train from BLA guerilla fighters which added to its embarrassment. These attacks were the most ferocious in years by ethnic militants fighting a decades-long insurgency to win secession of the resource-rich southwestern province, home to major China-led projects such as a port and a gold and copper mine.

The insurgency’s lethality has increased many folds in recent times. As a result, more fierce attacks, such as suicide bombings, high-profile targeted attacks, and full-fledged assaults on army camps are now shaping the course of Pakistan’s oldest separatist insurgency.

I spoke to a mid-level commander of the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) about the increasing number of attacks carried out by the Baloch insurgents. He advised that usually big attacks get highlighted more but Baloch fighters are carrying out small-scale attacks on Pakistani forces daily.

He further added that as a result of regular attacks many parts of Balochistan have become “no-go areas” for Pakistan’s security forces as doing ground movement in these areas is next to impossible. Let’s look at the major armed groups leading the Baloch insurgency currently.

Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA)

BLA, currently led by Bashir Zaib Baloch, is considered as the biggest armed group in Balochistan with thousands of full-time fighters and a special unit called Majeed Brigade. The special unit is tasked with carrying out high-stakes and unconventional bold operations against Pakistani security forces. BLA has positioned itself as a group committed to Balochistan’s complete independence from Pakistan.

Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF)

BLF is one of the oldest armed groups in Balochistan; it is led by Dr Allah Nazar Baloch since 2003-2004. Dr Baloch has completed his medical studies from Bolan Medical College, Quetta and he is the founder of Baloch Student Organisation- Azad (BSO-Azad). BLF also has a special unit named as Qurban Unit and advocates for independent Balochistan.

Baloch Raji Aajoi Sangar (BRAS)

Baloch Raji Aajoi Sangar (BRAS) or Baloch Nationalist Freedom Movement is a 2018 coalition of “pro-independence” armed groups in Balochistan. The coalition was formed by the alliance of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), the Baloch Republican Army (BRA), and the United Baloch Army (UBA). The objective of BRAS is to coordinate the activities of Baloch armed groups and launch big-scale attacks on Pakistani security forces. In the recent attack on Jaffar Express BRAS provided fighters and ground support to BLA. BRAS came into existence through the efforts of Dr Allah Nazar Baloch of BLF and Aslam Baloch of BLA

Armaments Used by Baloch Armed Groups

Baloch insurgents are better armed now and using sophisticated weaponry against Pakistani security forces. Since the United States withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. Many US-made weapons have ended up in the hands of Baloch armed groups like- M16A2 and M16A4 assault rifles, Trijicon ACOG optics, and M203 under-barrel grenade launchers. In addition to small firearms and RPG-7 pattern rocket launchers, Baloch insurgents are using various machine guns like PK(M) and MG3 variants. Sometimes, insurgents have also been spotted using heavy machine guns (HMG).

Is Military Operation Feasible?

After the recent attacks, the Pakistan military establishment which takes all important policy decisions for the country has vowed to launch military operations in Balochistan in response to the recent attacks. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has publicly stated that he will sanction all the resources required by the Army to finish off the Baloch insurgency. But practically launching an operation in Balochistan is going to be a nightmare for the Pakistani Army for the following reasons.

Vast Geography– Balochistan is a large area with a scattered population, which is a major disadvantage for the government. The government cannot provide foolproof security, while nationalist armed groups can easily launch guerilla attacks and hide in the vast geography of the province. Tracking down a band of guerrilla fighters in the biggest province of Pakistan in terms of area will be next to impossible.

Porous Border– Balochistan’s borders with Iran and Afghanistan is a porous one and poorly guarded. This makes it convenient for Baloch insurgents for carrying on cross border movement of both men and material. Also, Pakistani authorities don’t have very cordial relations with its neighbours and can’t chalk out a joint strategy with them to put a check on Baloch insurgents’ movement across the border.

Mobilization of Huge Forces– To effectively monitor and dominate Balochistan a mobilization of forces in big numbers is required. At this point, Pakistan is not in a position to spare that level of force. The army is tied up on multiple fronts.

Pakistan can’t afford to move forces from the LOC and International Border with India and with growing tensions with the Afghan Taliban forces can’t be redirected from the Durand line. Additionally, in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province, the Pakistani Taliban AKA TTP has heavily engaged Pakistani security forces. Hence, the Pakistani Army’s high command finding it hard to increase its troop level in Balochistan.

Fighters from the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Balochistan, Pakistan. Photo: Hakkai

Growing Capabilities of Baloch Insurgents– Baloch armed groups have increased their capabilities many folds in every dimension. For example- Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) biggest Baloch armed group. Is the most organized insurgent group with an elaborate structure and numerical strength of 3,500 to 4,000 fighters.

Over the years, BLA has improved its communication capabilities and armaments significantly. The longevity and resilience of the insurgents are undoubtedly a strength, as they have learned to adapt and respond to various counterinsurgency methods of the state. On the ground, these groups are capable enough and can give a bloody nose to the Pakistani army through guerrilla tactics like- Ambush, IED Blast, Sniper fire, and Suicide attacks.

Low Support from Local Population– Despite having vast natural wealth, much of the population of the province lives below the poverty line this has created a deep sense of resentment among the locals towards the Pakistani state. A sizable section of the Baloch society considers the Pakistani deep state as looters who are exploiting their land and using it as a colony. With such a strong anti-Pakistan feeling prevalent in Baloch society it will be very tough for the Army to gather credible intelligence about the insurgents from the locals. Without proper ground information, any military operation is doomed to fail.

Historically, attempts to suppress the Baloch issue through force and tyranny have proven futile. The most evident example of this is the killing of 79-year-old Baloch veteran leader Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti in August 2006 in the Tartani area of Dera Bugti. After he died in the military operation a new wave of ferocious insurgency emerged. The current situation is no exception; it is likely to breed more problems rather than offering solutions. Launching military operations in the name of a crackdown on insurgency won’t make much of a difference on the other hand it might ignite another fierce phase.

Heightened Insurgency is Due to Feelings of Deep Resentment

At the core of the ethno-nationalist armed insurgency is the deep-rooted feeling of oppression among the Baloch people. The Pakistani deep state has always labeled these insurgencies as the handiwork of foreign intelligence agencies. But the truth is that forceful occupation and looting of vast natural resources have fuelled the call of Baloch nationalism. With limited or no access to education, jobs, electricity, roads, and clean water. A common Baloch fails to understand why he is forced to live in abject poverty.

While other provinces of Pakistan are benefitting from the natural resources of his homeland. The Baloch movement seems to have spread deeper into Baloch society. Anti-State sentiments have gripped the entire province. Baloch school children refuse to sing the national anthem or fly its flag, women, traditionally confined to home have joined the struggle. Universities have become hotbeds of nationalist sentiment.

Army is the Real Problem

Representational image of Pakistani security forces in Balochistan. Photo: Reuters

The military always attempts to shift the entire onus of public outrage in Balochistan on the government and bureaucracy by overplaying the ‘neglect’ part while conveniently brushing the more menacing of its brutal practices towards the Baloch people under the carpet.

It’s the gross human rights violations and unspeakable atrocities being committed by Pakistan’s army upon the Balochs pushing the oppressed locals to take up arms against the state. The Pakistan Army does not know how to contain the insurgencies that are confronting it. The General Headquarters (GHQ) Rawalpindi only knows to use excessive force to silence any voice of dissatisfaction.

The re-application of colonial tactics by the military elites over other ethnic groups (non-Punjabis) clearly illustrates that the Army lacks empathy towards fellow countrymen. Also, it shows that the country still hasn’t learned lessons from its past. Pakistan needs to understand that the military has to be more vital in protecting the state from external enemies; for internal matters, the institution needs to support a political system governed by parliamentary and democratic forces. The sooner it realizes this, the better it will be for Balochistan and the entire country.

Manish Rai, a senior long-time contributing writer for iKurd.net, see below.

The opinions are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent the views of iKurd.net or its editors.