Iraq weighs Syria intervention amid advancing Islamist rebels

Iraq is not seeking military involvement in Syria, says Iraqi government spokesperson

BAGHDAD,— Iraqi Shi’ite political leaders and allied armed groups are closely deliberating the possibility of armed action in Syria as Turkey-backed Sunni Islamist rebels make significant territorial gains, capturing two cities and advancing on a third.

Officials view the situation as a serious threat to Iraq’s security, given its turbulent history with Syria-based Sunni militants.

Following the 2003 U.S. invasion, thousands of Sunni fighters crossed from Syria into Iraq, sparking years of bloody sectarian violence.

In 2013, they regrouped as the Islamic State, seizing vast swathes of Iraqi territory. Today’s rebel offensive, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as al Nusra Front, a group that has disavowed links to Al Qaeda and IS, still raises deep mistrust among Iraq’s leadership.

To bolster its defenses, Iraq has stationed thousands of troops and members of the Shiite Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)—a coalition of militias, many with ties to Iran—along its border with Syria. For now, their orders are defensive: protecting Iraq’s western flank rather than intervening in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

However, the calculus could shift depending on events, such as a rebel takeover of Homs, the fall of Assad, or threats to the region’s Shi’ite population, according to government sources.

Iraqi government spokesperson Bassem Al-Awadi emphasized that Iraq is not seeking military involvement in Syria but warned against the country’s fragmentation, calling it a “red line” for Baghdad.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, a moderate leader, remains focused on rebuilding Iraq after decades of conflict, resisting pressure to engage in Syria’s spiraling civil war or the broader regional crisis linked to the Gaza conflict.

PMF leader Falih al-Fayadh hinted at Iraq’s precarious position, saying, “It is unwise to ignore a fire in your neighbor’s house,” during a televised address. Still, the government has avoided large-scale mobilization into Syria, despite reports of some fighters crossing the border to support Assad’s forces.

Iraq is a key player in Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” which includes Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. With its allies severely weakened by Israeli military actions, analysts see Iraq’s tens of thousands of battle-hardened fighters as pivotal should Iran escalate its regional efforts in Syria.

However, the ruling coalition in Baghdad is divided. Some factions, with vested interests in Syria, favor intervention, while others worry it could destabilize Iraq further.

In Baghdad this week, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein met his Syrian and Iranian counterparts to discuss the crisis. Hussein condemned attacks by “terrorist groups” in Syria, while Iran’s Abbas Araqchi pledged full support for Assad’s government.

They emphasized the importance of maintaining ongoing consultation and coordination among the three countries to monitor unfolding events and prepare for any potential developments in the coming days, Iraqi foreign ministry said in a statement.

Meanwhile, HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani—once aligned with Al Qaeda in Iraq—urged Sudani to keep PMF forces out of Syria, stating in a video that the rebels seek peaceful ties with Iraq once Assad’s regime is ousted.

Iraqi officials remain skeptical, with one adviser remarking, “They may claim to be different, but to Iraq, they look very much the same.”

(With files from Reuters | Agencies)