Could Iran-US deal spell trouble for the Kurds?

Rizgar Khoshnaw | Exclusive to iKurd.net

By now most of us have read the news in the past few days regarding the agreement between the US/EU and Iran and no one truly knows (since no one has a crystal ball!) if indeed this deal will stick or not. I strongly feel/think that the US/EU business community, most of them at least, are strongly pushing, and excited, for this deal to succeed and become a reality.

These businesses/companies are counting the days when the “gate of Iran” market would open (after the lifting of the economic sanctions) and allow them to do business there once more. And speaking of business, what and how will this deal affect the Kurds economically? How will this deal with US/Iran affect the Kurds politically, when dealing with the US?

As it stands, we all know that the current US administration is coldheartedly, and reluctantly, supports the Kurdistan Regional Government ( KRG) in certain important areas- most often the US supports Baghdad rather than the KRG whenever there is an issue that involved all these three parties.

The US government has needed the Kurds in the past on few occasions, economically and politically, such as very favorable oil deals signed with US based companies (Exxon/ Marathon) in Kurdistan and fighting ISIS. Whenever the US has asked the KRG to send/use Kurdish fighters (Peshmergas) to confront ISIS, the KRG has obliged and granted their wish without any hesitations or delay. This will no longer be needed once ISIS is defeated and completely removed/eliminated from Iraq, which is very soon.

And, as it seems recently, that ISIS days are numbered and will soon no longer be a threat. And, once Iran is deal is sealed and these two countries ( US and Iran) get closer, the US relationship with the Kurds will gradually grow a part. The US will no longer need the Kurds for anything. Furthermore, the Iraqi central government, which has many problems with the KRG, has very close and cordial relationship with Iran and the US at the same time. Once the US, Iran and Iraq are on the “same page” and friends, the Kurds will no longer matter to anyone at all. Look out then!!

What little attention the KRG is now enjoying/receiving from the US will surly diminish to a point where the Kurds will no longer matter to the US, Iran and Iraq equally. Once more the Kurds will be viewed as the inferior ones among all these parties and have nothing to use as a bargain chip with anyone.

And, I truly believe that if this deal between the US/Iran succeeds, Kurdistan will surly suffer economically, and publically, as I had already mentioned, in the very near future because:

1- The Iranian oil will enter the international market; an additional supply of 1.2 Million barrel per day will cause an over supply of crude oil internationally- in which we already have a surplus of oil now. This additional supply could result in less demand for Kurdish oil and in turn, the KRG will be selling less oil.

2- The fact that the price of oil already down 50% from its recent high (around $54 as of today) of the year and will drop even further, could easily go lower than $40 a barrel, once the additional 1.2 Million Iranian oil hits the international market. This means another drop in oil revenue when oil is the KRG only source of income. Less money come into the KRG budget, means they are less able to develop Kurdistan and provide a decent living standards to their Kurdish citizens.

3- The Kurds will no longer have any political influence/clout in the region and will certainly reach a point that they will have to turn to Baghdad once more and mend ties in order to just survive.

Knowing this, what should the KRG do now? I think the only option that the KRG has now is to build a better relationship with Baghdad, as I have advocated many times in the past, and not much else, or options, are left for them to turn to. Like it or not, the Kurds are living within the boundaries of Iraq and we can not change that.

Turkey has already proved that can not be trusted when it comes to dealing with the Kurds on many occasions in recent times. At the same time the US has been pulling back gradually and distancing its self from the KRG because the US values the relationship with Baghdad is much more important, and advantages, than Kurdistan.

While some people think/argue that this new agreement, between Iran and the US, will not bring prosperity to foreign companies looking to enter the Iran market because they compare Iran to Iraq, I totally disagree with such assessment and analysis. I say that because Iran is not like Iraq where they have different religion, tribes and sects and internal conflict as we have seen in Iraq that do not see eye-to-eye on many issues. Dealing and working in Iran will be much easier than Iraq, if/when the door opens up to do business.

So, in the end, once the sanctions on Iran are lifted, the Kurds will be the biggest losers economically and politically and must prepare for this day carefully. In my opinion, all arrows once more points to Baghdad and Baghdad only for building a better relationship as the Kurds only option in order to survive.

Rizgar Xoshnaw, a senior Kurdish writer based in Washington, a longtime contributing writer and columnist for iKurd.net.

The opinions are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent the views of iKurd.net or its editors.