Iraq’s Kurds head to the polls amid low expectations for reform

ERBIL/SULAIMANI, Iraqi Kurdistan region,—The semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq held parliamentary elections on Sunday, offering voters a chance to elect new representatives in a political environment long dominated by two powerful families.

As the oil-rich region went to the polls, many voters expressed growing frustration with the entrenched political elite and the lack of significant improvements in their daily lives.

Iraqi Kurdistan, often described as a relatively stable area in the volatile Middle East, enjoys strong connections with the United States and European countries. However, beneath this surface of stability, activists and critics argue that Kurdistan faces deep-rooted challenges similar to those plaguing the broader country—corruption, political repression, and the consolidation of power among a select few.

This election, originally scheduled two years ago, was delayed four times due to disputes between the region’s two major political forces: the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). These rival factions, which have controlled Kurdish politics for decades, are headed by two influential families—the Barzanis and the Talabanis.

The KDP, led by the Barzani clan, holds sway over Erbil, the region’s capital, and Duhok, while the PUK, controlled by the Talabani family, maintains its stronghold in Sulaimani, the second-largest city in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Despite campaign rallies and efforts to engage the electorate, public dissatisfaction with both parties has intensified in recent years. Economic hardships, irregular salary payments to civil servants, and allegations of corruption have fueled widespread disillusionment. Experts believe that while the traditional parties maintain substantial control, there is potential for opposition movements to capitalize on voter frustration.

Huri Mohammed, a 66-year-old housewife, cast her vote for the KDP, which she believes has worked for the people. “I hope the next government will focus more on helping the poor,” she said, reflecting the economic struggles of many in the region.

Meanwhile, Dilman Sharif, a 47-year-old civil servant in PUK-dominated Sulaimani, took a different stance, urging voters to oppose the government in the election. “It’s time for change,” he said, voicing a sentiment shared by many opposition supporters.

One of the key opposition groups, New Generation (Newey Nwê), along with dissident members of the Talabani clan, stands to gain from the public’s growing dissatisfaction, according to Sarteep Jawhar, a PUK dissident and political analyst. The protest vote could potentially shake up the region’s political landscape, though many remain skeptical of significant change.

Qubad Talabani, a member of the PUK's Political Bureau — Qubad Talabani, a member of the PUK’s Political Bureau, casts his vote in the parliamentary elections in Sulaimani, Iraqi Kurdistan, on October 20, 2024. Photo: Talbani’s Press Office/via iKurd.net

At a polling station in Sulaimani, a modest line of about 20 people had already formed as voting began, underscoring the ambivalence many feel toward the process. Political analyst Shivan Fazil, currently pursuing a PhD at Boston University, noted that there is “growing fatigue with the two ruling parties.”

Fazil explained that economic conditions in the region have deteriorated in the past decade, with many households struggling due to delayed salary payments for the region’s 1.2 million civil servants.

These financial problems stem, in part, from ongoing tensions between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Baghdad over control of oil revenues. Disputes between the federal Iraqi government and the KRG regarding oil exports have created economic uncertainty in the region, which relies heavily on oil income.

Changes in this year’s election, including the creation of four new constituencies, could lead to shifts in the distribution of seats in the Kurdish parliament.

However, many analysts predict the KDP will maintain its majority, thanks to its internal cohesion and strong party discipline.

Currently, the KDP holds 45 seats in the outgoing parliament, while the PUK controls 21 seats. The KDP’s dominance has been bolstered by alliances with minority groups, including Turkmen, Armenians, and Christians, who have reserved seats.

A Kurdish man casts his vote at a polling station during the parliamentary elections in Sulaimani, Iraqi Kurdistan, on October 20, 2024. Photo: NRT TV

Out of the region’s 6 million inhabitants, 2.9 million people are eligible to vote, including 30 women, who are guaranteed representation through a quota system. Voter turnout in the last regional election, held in 2018, stood at 59 percent, a number that may drop this year due to rising disillusionment.

Once elected, the new parliament will select the region’s president and prime minister, both of whom currently hail from the Barzani family. Nechirvan Barzani serves as president, while his cousin, Masrour Barzani, holds the prime minister’s office.

The Barzani family’s political dominance, often criticized as oligarchic, has drawn significant attention for its alleged corruption and concentration of wealth derived from the region’s oil resources.

Massoud Barzani, a long-time leader and influential figure behind the scenes, remains a central force in Kurdish politics. His legacy continues to shape the KDP, even as public frustration mounts.

“After the election, we will come together to form a government that serves the people of Kurdistan,” Nechirvan Barzani stated on Sunday, expressing hope for a swift formation of a unity government.

As voting progressed, United Nations representative Mohamed al-Hassan emphasized the election’s importance as an opportunity to “revitalize democracy and bring new ideas into Kurdish institutions.”

However, many remain skeptical. Sazan Saduala, a 55-year-old teacher, said she was boycotting the vote altogether. “This government won’t change through elections,” she said. “It keeps its power through force and money.”

Voting was set to conclude by 6 p.m., with more than 1,200 polling stations open across the region. As the results come in, all eyes will be on whether public dissatisfaction can shift the long-standing balance of power in Iraqi Kurdistan, or whether the Barzani and Talabani families will continue their dominance over the region.

On Friday, militia members and security personnel affiliated with the KDP and PUK across the Iraqi Kurdistan region went to polling stations to take part in early voting.

(With files from AFP | Agencies)