Iraq's Sudani in Kurdistan for KRG government formation talks

ERBIL/SULAIMANI, Iraqi Kurdistan region,— Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani arrived in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan region (Bashur), on Wednesday to meet with Kurdish political leaders, aiming to accelerate the formation of the Kurdistan regional Government (KRG) following last month’s regional elections.

Upon his arrival at Erbil International Airport, Sudani was welcomed by Kurdistan regional Prime Minister Masrour Barzani.

Talks covered a range of unresolved issues between Baghdad and the Kurdistan region, including public sector salaries, the Kurdistan region’s share of the federal budget, oil exports, and the long-planned Iraqi national census.

A source from the Iraqi government explained that Sudani’s primary goal was to encourage Kurdish parties to expedite the formation of the new regional cabinet.

Later, Kurdistan region President Nechirvan Barzani also met with Sudani to discuss Baghdad-Erbil relations and government formation efforts. According to a statement from the Kurdistan Presidency, the leaders reviewed the outcome of the recent parliamentary elections in Kurdistan and explored ways to foster constructive dialogue under the Iraqi constitution.

Both parties emphasized the importance of joint coordination mechanisms and voiced a shared commitment to resolve outstanding issues through cooperation. Sudani reiterated Baghdad’s willingness to support the KRG in forming a new government, highlighting the importance of maintaining strong relations between federal and regional authorities.

In the evening, Sudani traveled to Sulaimani city, where he was officially greeted by Bafel Jalal Talabani, the President of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), along with other senior PUK members.

Discussions in Sulaimani focused on the recent elections, the formation of the new cabinet, and plans for the national census. Bistun Fayeq, an advisor to the PUK president, mentioned that the conversation also covered the possibility of Sudani’s renomination as Iraq’s prime minister, underscoring the PUK’s influence in both Kurdish and Iraqi politics.

The October 20, 2024 election in Iraqi Kurdistan, delayed by two years, led to a strengthened position for the ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which won 39 seats. The PUK secured 32 seats, while the opposition New Generation Movement claimed third place with 15 seats.

Islamist groups, including the Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) and Islamic Kurdistan Justice Group (Komal), earned seven and three seats, respectively. Meanwhile, other parties such as the National Stance Movement and People’s Front received smaller shares, with former opposition heavyweight Gorran managing just one seat.

Analysts argue that Gorran’s single-seat win reflects a “dead cat bounce,” suggesting that the party’s decline is terminal and it may struggle to secure even this minimal representation in future elections. This marks a significant fall from its once-prominent position as a leading opposition force.

Several parties, including Komal, KIU, Baray Gal, and Halwest, criticized the election process, alleging fraud and voter manipulation and raising concerns over the reliability of voting machines. Despite the finalized results in late October, official government formation talks have yet to begin.

On social media, Aziz Ahmad, a deputy chief of staff for Masrour Barzani, indicated that Sudani’s visit also aimed to address key issues such as budget payments, oil exports, and security coordination.

Baghdad and Erbil recently made strides towards resuming Kurdish oil exports after a lengthy halt, with the Iraqi cabinet proposing higher compensation for oil transport and production. However, this plan still requires parliamentary approval.

Observers and Iraqi officials have noted that significant quantities of Kurdish oil continue to be transported daily out of the region by truck, with alleged smuggling operations primarily attributed to the ruling KDP and PUK parties, especially into Iran and Afghanistan.