Kurdish dissidents monitor Iran’s vulnerability as war ends

ERBIL, Iraqi Kurdistan region,— As a tentative ceasefire takes hold after nearly two weeks of intense fighting between Iran and Israel, exiled Iranian Kurdish dissident politicians are closely watching for signs of political cracks within the Islamic Republic.

Iranian Kurdish factions based in northern Iraq’s Kurdistan region have long kept their distance from armed conflict, but the recent Israel-Iran war, punctuated by U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, has raised questions about what comes next for Tehran — and for the dissidents operating just beyond its borders.

Abdullah Mohtadi, leader of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan (Komełey Şorrişgêrrî Zehmetkêşanî Kurdistanî Êran), told AP he does not see foreign powers pushing Iranian Kurds toward armed rebellion.

“No one is telling us to start a fight,” Mohtadi said in Washington last week. “We are watching the situation very closely, but we haven’t called for an uprising. That decision is ours. We aren’t puppets. Nobody has asked us to rise (up). We will decide when is the right time.”

Komala, a leftist group with historical roots in Iran’s Kurdish regions, has kept its activities limited to what Mohtadi described as self-defense.

According to him, Komala’s policy has steered clear of armed engagement for nearly three decades, though the group has not abandoned its goals of federal democracy in Iran.

Mohtadi said he told U.S. officials that Komala is not pushing for Kurdish independence, but rather for a secular, federal Iranian state that respects the rights of all ethnic groups.

“We want a constitution that guarantees equality,” he said.

The Israeli air campaign that began June 13 provoked retaliatory missile launches from Iran. U.S. involvement escalated the conflict with direct strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities using heavy munitions. By the time the ceasefire was brokered, both sides had absorbed significant blows.

While some Kurdish factions, such as the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), have hinted at possible opportunity in the current instability, Mohtadi remains cautious.

“This war might lead to internal change,” he said. “We hope so, but we’re not acting on hope alone.”

Other Kurdish leaders have highlighted challenges with unity among their groups. Khalil Naderi, spokesperson for PAK, said the parties have struggled to come together on a shared agenda.

Kawsar Fattahi, a central committee member of Komala, emphasized the importance of planning for the future beyond regime change.

“We should not only prepare for the fall of the regime,” she told AP. “What matters more is how we plan for what happens after that.”

She added that the aim must be to help rebuild a democratic Iran that reflects the diversity of its people and regions. “Because our goal is to rebuild a new Iran,” Fattahi said.

Still, Mohtadi emphasized long-term strategy over short-term revolt.

“Our focus is not just on the fall of the regime,” he said. “We’re planning for the day after — for rebuilding Iran.”

The Kurdistan Free Life Party, known as PJAK, is the most active Kurdish militant group operating in Iranian Kurdistan (Rojhelat Kurdistan). Based along the border between Iraq’s Kurdistan region (Bashur Kurdistan) and Iranian Kurdistan, PJAK has carried out attacks against Iranian security forces primarily in Iran’s Kurdistan province and other Kurdish-populated areas.

Formed in 2004, PJAK’s stated goal is to establish a degree of Kurdish self-rule in Iran, seeking semi-autonomous regional entities or a federal system similar to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq. The group reportedly fields more than 3,000 fighters, with women making up approximately half of its ranks.

Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Iran’s Kurdish population has faced systemic discrimination under laws and policies that restrict their political, social, and economic rights. Kurds in Iran contend with obstacles in practicing their religion, preserving their culture, and participating fully in society.

Kurdish parents are often prohibited from registering children with certain Kurdish names. Religious minorities with Kurdish roots face additional restrictions designed to marginalize and isolate them.

Economic hardships are widespread among Iranian Kurds, who experience discrimination in employment, housing, and political representation. This has contributed to entrenched poverty and further exclusion from national life.

Estimates suggest that more than 12 million Kurds live within Iranian Kurdistan.

(With files from AP | Agencies)