The Kurdish Dream: Where to?

Nemat Sharif | Exclusive to iKurd.net

Four years ago, on such days, when the outgoing US President Joseph Biden won the White House, we cheered and applauded as he ascended to the top of the super power. We applauded him because he presented himself as a friend of the Kurdish people.

He received President Massoud Barzani with enthusiasm to exchange views on the future of the Kurds in the Middle East in general and in Iraq in particular at a breakfast that America prepares for kings. We cheered his victory because he, who was the US Vice President then, told Massoud Barzani “You and I will see an independent Kurdistan in our lifetimes”.

After four years, what happened? President Biden prepares to leave the White House at the age of 78 to spend the rest of his life away from the spotlight?

Some believed that this statement from America to the Kurds was equivalent to the British Balfour Declaration for the Jews. Both are still alive. Will the Biden Promise be fulfilled by his rival, Trump? Let us look at what happened, and how analysts see the dramatic events in the Middle East over the past year.

Before the Al-Aqsa Flood, (October 7, 2023) The the Middle East seemed calm on the surface, moving towards normalizing relations between Israel and the Arab countries under American sponsorship. However, the volcano in international relations between the East and West axes was boiling. China was making strides to establish a foothold in West Asia and Africa economically, to the point that some thought it was working to replace the United States and its Western allies.

Between Russia and Europe, the situation was tense due to NATO’s involvement in Ukraine, which many consider Russia’s backyard. Compared to the crisis when the Soviet Union tried to transfer nuclear weapons to Cuba in 1962. In response the US President John F. Kennedy put his forces on high alert in case the Soviets refused to retreat.

The United States, in its military doctrine, considers Cuba part of its backyard. Russia also considers Ukraine a breach of its national security if Ukraine joins NATO. In Southeast Asia, there is another alliance like NATO although undeclared, The axis includes Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the United States. On the other side stands China, North Korea, Russia, and Iran.

In the recent South Korean elections, the Democrats won overwhelming majority in the parliament, which stood against the wishes of the pro-Western president and his support for Ukraine. The president was forced to suspend parliament by declaring martial law, which lasted only six hours, as the parliament forced him to lift the martial law on December 3.

The conflict between the Eastern and Western blocs is raging. There is no signs of calm on the horizon, as the outgoing American administration wants to score more successes before leaving the White House. A boiling world is awaiting the new president while he says that he wants to go down in history as a man who ended raging wars, of course as he scores other gains in an atmosphere of calm or at least gradually calming the boil to reach his strategic goals.

The painful blows that Israel has dealt to Iran and its arms in the region from military operations and assassinations of the axis leaders of resistance have put the region on the brink of profound changes that include the internal changes of countries as well as changing international borders.

The Israeli Prime Minister said that he will change the face of the Middle East. This is seen in his expansionist project that has become within reach, as there are no options left but normalization or fragmentation. The rise of military operations by the Syrian opposition to threaten Damascus, which some call the flood of the Levant, after which Iraq and perhaps Egypt would follow, before things calm down in the Middle East. This has caused Israeli military operations to slowdown to ’let’s wait and see what happens.‘

Between Turkey and Israel, Syria and Iraq constitute a competition, each to gain more of its interests. Perhaps the fall of Damascus will determine the next stage in the ongoing transformations in the Middle East.

Will the Israeli-Turkish competition turn into a conflict between the two largest powers in the Middle East? or will it be more cooperation to manage their conflict to better serve their countries according to their priorities? The speed and intensity of the conflict brought Damascus to its knees in only ten days. This reminds us of the rapid emergence of ISIS in 2014 in Iraq. Fighting and land control imposes a new reality. Tactics do not create a solid foundation for sustainable stability and sustainable certainty, only strategies do. It is a foregone conclusion that the rebel groups need to clarify their strategies for the foreseeable future of Syria.

Perhaps the existential threat to Israel is coming to an end, but the existence itself is still unstable and unsustainable. Thus, the trend must be towards expansion and/or normalization. This is what appears from the Israeli moves supported by the United States to achieve this goal. The US support is not a matter of dispute or controversy between the American Democratic and Republican parties.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s statements are interpreted to include parts of southern Turkey in the future Jewish homeland. This angered the Turkish President Erdogan and raised his anxiety as this inches toward the existential threat he feels from the Kurdish issue in general and from Rojava (Syrian Kurdistan) administration in particular.

Syria embodies the conflict of axes in an unmistakable way. Turkey, the Syrian opposition, including Abu Muhammad al-Golani, who until recently was a terrorist working with ISIS, and Israel are in one axis under the Western umbrella. Turkey provides military and Israel intelligence backing (source: Arab media channels).

The opposing axis is Iran, Russia and their allies in the region. The question that arises here is where do the Kurds stand in general and the Kurds in Syria in particular? This is a regional-international conflict in which several groups come together by their opposition to the Asad Regime. Non-state players, such as Kurds, refugees, and other groups are perhaps the most legitimate groups and most impacted. They need international support to survive on their own lands.

Devlet Baghjali’s, chairman of the Turkish National Movement, statements and the Turkish invitation to Mr. Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), to deliver a speech before the Turkish parliament announcing in effect the surrender of PKK under any pretext, comes against the backdrop of Turkey’s concern about Israel’s threat to its national security. When Netanyahu spoke about the New Middle East project, he said, “We will change the face of the Middle East.” Will the Kurds be drawn in by Erdogan’s statements, as they did after World War I, when Kemal Ataturk founded the Turkish Republic?

Kurdish YPG fighters hold their movement's flag — Kurdish YPG fighters hold their movement’s flag while a Turkish soldier looks at them near the Akcakale crossing gate between Turkey and and Syrian Kurdistan (Rojava), 2015. Photo: AFP

In the axis, there is an important contradiction that we must not ignore. That is Turkey vs. Kurds, and Israel vs. an Islamic state which will in effect be an arm of Turkey (instead of Asaad, an arm of Iran). Therefore, thus, the American umbrella for the axis is more important to the Kurds than others. If it were not for that, Turkey might have crushed the autonomous administration in northern and eastern Syria and perhaps the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, despite its legal legitimacy in Iraq.

Turkey also continues to fight the PKK on Iraqi soil, even during the days of ISIS, when it cooperated with the Iraqi army, and to this day. “The number of Turkish military bases in northern Iraq is about 80 bases, which vary between large and small camps, and are distributed between Erbil, Dohuk and Nineveh, along the Iraqi-Turkish border” within the territory of the [Kurdish] region.

Turkey and Iran are two national states par excellence despite their religious and sectarian appearance. The only policy that brings them together is their anti-Kurdish policy. This is historically obvious since the Saadabad Agreement in 1937. Furthermore, both countries desire, in one way or another, to restore their glories in the Ottoman and Persian empires.

Hence, the seeds of conflict. In Iraq, the regime changed in 2003, and the new regime took the big step to recognize the Kurds. In Syria, the Assad regime rejected the legitimate rights of the Kurdish people, until its fall. Will things change with the coming of a new government to Damascus? or will the new regime deny the legitimate rights of the Kurdish people?

The rapid developments in Syria produced more questions than answers. Let’s add Israel to complete the Middle Eastern trilogy and the Kurdish relations that extend their roots to the sixties of the last century, given the presence of a Kurdish community in Israel. The Jewish Kurds and other Iraqi Jews still acknowledge the Kurds’ role in saving many of them during the ‘Farhud’ (An Iraqi Arabic word meaning the looting and plundering of Jewish property before they left Iraq to Israel between 1948-1952).

Israeli and Kurdish flags in Tel Aviv, 2015. Photo: SM

The Kurds certainly could cultivate these historical relations, despite religious differences. On the other hand, Israel was and still is looking for a friend in the region, but never made an investment in better relations with the Kurds. Israeli empty statements here and there do not help. Israel is not an enemy of the Kurds, but it is not a friend either. Let alone to be an ally.

Fifty years ago, after the end of the Kurdish revolution in 1975, a small number of Kurdish refugees in Iran at that time headed to Europe and America. Years later, we would search book indices to find out if the writer had mentioned anything about the Kurds. Often when we said we are Kurds or from Kurdistan, many did not know these two words. Today, when you enter any bookstore, you find dozens, if not hundreds, of books that talk about all parts of Kurdistan.

Kurdish female SDF/YPG/YPJ fighter, Syrian Kurdistan (Rojava), March 23, 2019. Photo: Reuters

The collective American awareness of the Kurds has developed, along with American diplomacy in its relations with the Kurds in Iraq and now the Kurds in Syria. There is no doubt that they realize the importance of their relations with the Kurds in Turkey and Iran, but for geo-political reasons and their relations with these two countries or lack thereof, they undoubtedly avoid engaging in open talks with them. The Kurds and American diplomats have suffered from the Kissinger’s diplomacy for more than a quarter of a century. (For more on American-Kurdish relations, see “The Kurds and US Foreign Policy-International Relations in the Middle East since 1945” by Marianna Charoutaki.)

By comparison, we find that Kurdish-Israeli relations are still weak and timid despite the geopolitical apprehension in the Middle East. Why not now as normalization is underway with most Arab countries. In deed, the October 7 war was designed to strike the normalization processes between Israel and the Arab countries.

Years ago, President Massoud Barzani was asked about Kurdish-Israeli relations, his response was frank and decisive: “Is it permissible for you, but forbidden for us!” At that time, he meant the Egypt-Israel peace treaty. Since then not much has changed. In America, voices have risen in the press calling on Israel to support the Kurds or remain silent because the Kurds no longer can be a pressure card used whenever regional circumstances require it. One of these voices is an out spoken Israeli supporter. (see: Micheal Rubin in ikurd.net “It’s ‘put up or shut up’ time for Israel on Kurdistan”.)

There is no doubt that Israel wanted to overthrow Assad and replace him with a moderate government that they can coexist, and represent a security zone to some extent. Israel does not want to repeat the Hamas experience in Syria. A hard line Islamist government (i.e. Muslim Brotherhood, which brings Erdogan and Hamas together, or Al-Qaeda and ISIS, to which Abu Muhammad al-Golani and his followers belonged.)

From the Turkish point of view, it is much deeper from a nationalist perspective. The Turkish national thought has been clear in Turkish policies for more than 50 years. Some call it the new Ottoman and others the Turani thought, which includes all the Turkish elements in Central Asia, the Uighur, Turkmenistan, Kazakhs and others, and then Azerbaijan and the Turkmen in Iraq and Syria and the Turks in Northern Cyprus. Therefore, the Turks are looking for new trends in Syria. If it moves towards a democratic coalition government, they will work to keep the Kurds in check.

Kurdish female SDF/YPJ fighter in Syrian Kurdistan (Rojava), 2022. Photo: AFP

The Kurds are expected to control nearly 40% of the area of Syria and they will have a strong role in Damascus. If it is a trend towards federalism, confederation or even division into three or four mini-states, Turkey sees it as its duty to create a special entity for the Turkmen, on its borders and under its auspices, as in Cyprus. Hence, all extremist Turkish elements from Central Asia, Azerbaijan, the Turkmen and even the Turkish Cypriots are under the umbrella of ‘Dawn of Freedom’ movement, which some call ‘the Levant Flood’ similar to the ‘Al-Aqsa Flood (Th Arab name for October 7, 2023’.)

From the Iranian perspective, they tried to keep the Assad regime, then they want to cooperate to keep Syria united. But if it is an Islamic government, they will try to coexist with it as in Iran’s foreign policy, Syria a central to their Middle East policy Syria is part of the Shiite crescent from Lebanon to Tehran. If none works, Tehran does not want, the division of Syria. Therefore, we see that the only goal that unites Iran and Turkey is to prevent the rise of a Kurdish state.

Turkey and Iran have been competitors if not enemies since the dawn of history, and there is no doubt that both of them have competing regional ambitions. Israel and the West likely will support the division into Shiite, Sunni, Kurdish states, and perhaps Turkey will push for a Turkman entity.

In the face of Turkish and Iranian meddling in Syria, Israel and the West should support a Kurdish State, the resettlement of refugees, pardoning everyone and following a policy of democratization based on equal citizenship in all entities at least for the foreseeable future. It does not seem that the Syrian people will have a say in their future at least initially, hoping to lead to a better future for all. Until social peace and reconciliation with the neighbors are achieved it does not matter whether al-Golani is in power or not. It is unclear if Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and other opposition factions truly represent the Syrian people until elections are held.

Where are the Kurds in all these plans and active political forces in Syria and the neighboring countries? It is clear that the pressure is mounting on the Syrian Kurdistan and they certainly need the support of the Kurds before anyone else. If not with forces and weapons, then with kind words of solidarity.

Certainly, the geopolitics of the region impact all the parts of Kurdistan. The Kurds must be aware, peoples and leaders, that they should never be a stumbling block in the way of their brothers achieving their goals. RozAva victory is for everyone, and their loss will bring calamities upon all. No one needs media drum up of what they do or how they support Rojava.

Perhaps the best support at this time is to provide advice or a word of support from representatives of the Kurdish parties, especially in Europe and the USA. The Kurds in Syria today are taking bold steps and draw their borders with blood. As President Massoud Barzani once said, borders are drawn with blood, and here they are once again forced to draw their borders with blood today in Syria. It is not unlikely that Iraqi Kurds might be forced to To draw their borders with blood again. Observers expect that this ‘flood’ will begin in Iraq as soon as it subsides in Syria. Let us remember that a nation is like a solid structure that supports and strengthens each other.

Nemat Sharif, a political analyst, a contributing writer and columnist for iKurd.net.

The opinions are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent the views of iKurd.net or its editors.