Will Turkey be next after Israel hits Hamas in Qatar?

Michael Rubin | American Enterprise Institute

Following a recent Israeli strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar, analysis suggests Hamas’s last refuge, Turkey, could be next.

The central thesis is that Turkey’s NATO membership will not provide protection from an Israeli attack. An Israeli strike could be framed as legitimate self-defense against a state sponsor of terror, and a collective NATO response under Article V is not automatic.
It could be vetoed by key members like the United States, or even Sweden and Finland, who hold grudges against Ankara.
Turkey is not the safe haven Hamas believes it to be.

After Qatar, Who’s Next? NATO Won’t Protect Turkey from an Israeli Strike

Israeli forces attacked Hamas targets in Qatar, a Persian Gulf emirate that has financed Hamas and incited terrorism against both Israel and the United States. Hamas leaders have called Doha home, believing that Qatar’s role as a mediator would shield terror leaders from accountability.

They were wrong. Not only does it look like the Israeli Defense Forces used airstrikes rather than more deniable covert action, but Washington whispers suggest they also coordinated with the White House.

Many American diplomats have long looked at Hamas as an inconvenience in their efforts to advance the peace process. Too often, European diplomats (and former Secretary of State John Kerry) have approached Hamas as a potential partner. Israel understands that Hamas represents an existential threat; they acted accordingly.

Given Israel’s assessment of Hamas, it stands to reason that Israel will continue to target the group wherever it might seek shelter.

Beyond Hamas? Turkey Could Be Next

Smoke rises following an Israeli strike targeting Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar, on September 9, 2025. Photo: UGC/X

Nor is Hamas alone. Following the 1972 Munich Olympics massacre, Israel hunted down its perpetrators across Europe and the Middle East. After the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) murdered three Israelis in Cyprus, Israeli jets flew 1,280 miles to bomb the PLO headquarters in Tunisia, which, like Qatar, had a foot in both camps even if, like Qatar, it had no formal relations with Israel.

Hamas leaders now understand that not only is Gaza itself is no safe haven, but Tehran and Doha provide no shelter.

Their last refuge is Turkey. Hamas long ago established offices in Istanbul not only to coordinate with Turkey, but also to launder cash and plan attacks.

NATO Won’t Save Them

Turkish President Erdogan meets Hamas political leader Haniyeh in Istanbul, 2024 – AP video

Both Hamas and Turkey may believe Turkey’s NATO membership offers immunity that Gaza, Iran, and Qatar did not. Qatar may have been a Major Non-NATO Ally, but it was not NATO.

It had no NATO Article V, which states that an attack on one is an attack on all.

Turkey and Hamas should take care, however. NATO is a consensus-driven organization, and seldom are decisions cut-and-dry. Sweden and Finland resent the Turkish extortion and blackmail that accompanied their accession to the defense alliance when Turkey humiliated them by demanding they constrain civil liberties and freedoms for Turkish dissidents and their Kurdish minority, and, in Sweden’s case, even extradite a Kurdish activist. A veto in Stockholm or Helsinki is a plausible option.

So too is a Washington veto, notwithstanding President Donald Trump’s close personal and business ties with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Self-defense provisions do not apply to an aggressor. If Turkey acts by terrorist proxy—and that is what Hamas effectively is—then Turkey essentially fired the first shot, and Israel is right to respond.

The Poles tell a joke. If forced to shoot at both a German and a Russian, whom would they target first? The answer: The German. The reason: Business before pleasure. As Erdoğan increases his anti-Israel and anti-Semitic rhetoric and transforms Turkey into a state sponsor of terror, the same joke might apply for Israel, but with Qatar and Iran substituting for Germany, and Turkey playing the role of Iran.

If Turks are wise, they will either extradite Hamas now or, for their own safety, stay at least 150 feet from any structure hosting Hamas.

Michael Rubin is a former Pentagon official whose major research areas are the Middle East, Turkey, Iran and diplomacy. He is author of “Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes” (Encounter, 2014). He is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute AEI. His major research area is the Middle East, with special focus on Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Kurdish society.

The article first published at aei.org

The opinions are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent the views of iKurd.net or its editors.