Ukrainian forces gain ground in Russia's Kursk region

KYIV,— Ukraine announced on Monday that it had seized control of approximately 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles) within Russia’s Kursk region. This major territorial gain marks Ukraine’s largest cross-border operation since the war began and highlights Kyiv’s determination to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin into peace negotiations.

A week into this unexpected offensive, Russian forces are still grappling with the Ukrainian advance. Ukraine’s top military commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, provided an update to President Volodymyr Zelensky via video link, signaling that the campaign is still active.

“We are maintaining our offensive in the Kursk region, and we currently hold around 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory,” Syrskyi said in a video shared on Zelensky’s Telegram account. His brief remarks aligned with Kyiv’s strategy of operational secrecy, contrasting sharply with last year’s widely publicized counteroffensive, which ultimately stalled against Russia’s robust defenses.

Syrskyi’s update came after Alexei Smirnov, the acting regional governor of Kursk, acknowledged the Ukrainian incursion. Smirnov estimated that Kyiv’s forces had taken control of 28 settlements, penetrating about 12 kilometers deep and spreading 40 kilometers wide. Though this account covers less territory than Syrskyi’s report, Smirnov’s statement represents a rare admission of a significant Russian setback more than 29 months into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

These developments have been difficult to independently verify, as the situation on the ground remains fluid, and both sides offer conflicting narratives.

President Putin has called the cross-border attack a “major provocation” intended to strengthen Kyiv’s position in any future peace talks. Meanwhile, President Zelensky, in his nightly address, framed the operation as essential for Ukraine’s security, noting that Russia has used the Kursk region to launch numerous strikes on Ukrainian soil.

He emphasized the relentless bombardment of Ukraine’s Sumy region, which lies across the border from Kursk. Since June 1, Russia has launched nearly 2,100 strikes on Sumy. “If Putin wants to continue fighting, Russia must be forced to seek peace,” Zelensky declared.

A Tactical Diversion?

The Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory follows months of gradual but steady Russian advances in eastern Ukraine, where Russian forces have kept Ukrainian troops on the defensive. The ongoing campaign in Kursk appears designed to shift Russian attention and resources away from these eastern fronts.

Former Ukrainian defense minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk suggested that the offensive is likely intended to create a new “problem area” for Russia, drawing its focus and resources away from its efforts in eastern Ukraine. “The goal seems to be to force Russia to divert its attention and resources from where it is currently trying to make gains,” Zagorodnyuk commented in an interview.

As the operation unfolded, U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham visited Kyiv, where he urged the U.S. administration to supply Ukraine with the necessary weapons to sustain its efforts. “What do I think about Kursk? Bold, brilliant, beautiful. Keep it up,” he remarked to reporters.

In response to the Ukrainian offensive, President Putin accused Ukraine of receiving assistance from its “Western masters” and vowed that Russia would deliver a “worthy response.”

Despite its early successes, Ukraine faces significant challenges in maintaining control over the captured territory in Russia. The risks associated with holding and defending this land could increase as Russia regroups and counterattacks.

Ukraine’s strategy appears to include using the seized territory as a buffer zone to protect its northern regions from further Russian strikes. On Wednesday, Kyiv officials announced plans to establish a military commandant’s office in the occupied part of Kursk, signaling an intention to consolidate control. The occupied area now exceeds 1,150 square kilometers, according to Syrskyi.

Zagorodnyuk suggested that Ukraine’s objectives in Kursk also involve distracting Russian forces from their operations in the Donbas region, where Russia has been making incremental gains over several months. However, there is little evidence that Russia is pulling back from its eastern campaign.

Military analysts have offered varying assessments of Ukraine’s ability to hold the captured territory. Polish military expert Konrad Muzyka described the operation as the largest invasion of Russia since World War Two, noting that it has inflicted significant damage on Russian forces, captured soldiers for potential exchanges, and created a strategic vulnerability on Russia’s western flank.

However, Muzyka warned that holding onto Russian territory could expose Ukrainian forces to substantial risks, especially as they face manpower shortages in the ongoing conflict with a much larger adversary. “The counter-invasion is a massive gamble,” he said. “While it’s yielding short-term gains, the costs could eventually outweigh the benefits, particularly if Russia continues its steady advances in the Donetsk region.”

In the initial days of Ukraine’s offensive, Russian forces struggled to respond effectively, with Ukrainian troops advancing rapidly and capturing significant ground. However, as the week progressed, Russia appeared to slow the Ukrainian advance. President Zelensky acknowledged on Wednesday that Ukrainian forces had advanced only a few kilometers that day.

A senior Russian commander reported on Thursday that Ukrainian forces had been pushed out of one village in the Kursk region, though Kyiv’s troops continued to probe along the front lines. Satellite images have shown new Russian defensive trenches further from the border, suggesting that Moscow is preparing for a protracted fight.

Russia has thus far relied on military units stationed near Kursk to counter the Ukrainian incursion, according to Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with Finland’s Black Bird Group, which monitors publicly available footage from the conflict.

By bringing the war to Russian soil, Zelensky risks weakening Ukraine’s defenses along the front lines within its own borders. Russia, on the other hand, has already deployed thousands of reserves in an effort to push back Ukrainian forces. Despite this, Russian advances in the Donbas region have been slow, with heavy losses reported among assault groups making incremental progress.

Far from experiencing a lull in the fighting, Ukraine reported intensified battles near the eastern town of Pokrovsk on Thursday, with no sign of a reduction in Russian military pressure.

(With files from Reuters)